经济EconomyAwaiting resolution
Will China's Q3 2026 GDP growth come in above 5.0%?
64% chance1 traders
Vol 10 USDGb 9,000
Year-on-year real GDP in the National Bureau of Statistics quarterly release, 18 Oct 2026.
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目录Market catalogue
36 of 36| Market | Category | Closes | Volume | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China's Q3 2026 GDP growth come in above 5.0%?Year-on-year real GDP in the National Bureau of Statistics quarterly release, 18 Oct 2026. | 经济Economy | Oct 18, 2026 awaiting resolution | 10 | ||
| Will full-year 2026 retail sales growth exceed 4.5%?NBS annual total retail sales of consumer goods, released Jan 2027. | 经济Economy | Jan 17, 2027 79d left | 1 | ||
| Will any month of 2026 print a negative year-on-year CPI?NBS monthly CPI release. Resolves Yes on the first sub-zero YoY print. | 经济Economy | Jan 12, 2027 74d left | 0 | ||
| Will urban youth unemployment (16-24, ex-students) top 17% before 2027?NBS monthly survey-based youth unemployment series. | 经济Economy | Dec 31, 2026 62d left | 0 | ||
| Will USD/CNY close below 7.20 on the last trading day of 2026?CFETS onshore closing rate, 31 Dec 2026. | 经济Economy | Dec 31, 2026 62d left | 0 | ||
| Will new-home prices in all 70 surveyed cities stop falling in any 2026 month?NBS 70-city new residential building sales price index. | 经济Economy | Dec 20, 2026 51d left | 0 | ||
| Will the PBOC cut the 1-year LPR at the October 2026 fixing?PBOC Loan Prime Rate announcement, 20 Oct 2026. | 政策Policy | Oct 20, 2026 awaiting resolution | 0 | ||
| Will the PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio in Q4 2026?PBOC official RRR announcement between 1 Oct and 31 Dec 2026. | 政策Policy | Dec 31, 2026 62d left | 0 | ||
| Will any tier-1 city materially loosen hukou rules before July 2027?State Council or municipal government published policy, per Xinhua. | 政策Policy | Jul 1, 2027 244d left | 0 | ||
| Will the 2027 budget set a headline deficit ratio of 4% or more?Budget report delivered at the March 2027 National People's Congress. | 政策Policy | Mar 15, 2027 136d left | 0 | ||
| Will a new property tax pilot be announced before 2028?MOF or State Council announcement naming pilot cities. | 政策Policy | Dec 31, 2027 427d left | 0 | ||
| Will Beijing record measurable snowfall before 1 December 2026?CMA Beijing Observatory (station 54511) daily precipitation record. | 天气Weather | Dec 1, 2026 32d left | 0 | ||
| Will Shanghai exceed 40°C on any day in 2027?CMA Xujiahui station daily maximum temperature. | 天气Weather | Sep 30, 2027 335d left | 0 | ||
| Will 8 or more typhoons make landfall on the mainland in 2026?CMA end-of-season tropical cyclone summary. | 天气Weather | Nov 30, 2026 31d left | 0 | ||
| Will a red drought alert be issued in the Yangtze basin before Oct 2027?Ministry of Water Resources / CMA national alert bulletins. | 天气Weather | Oct 1, 2027 336d left | 0 | ||
| Will Xiaomi deliver more than 500,000 EVs in calendar 2026?Xiaomi monthly delivery disclosures, summed for Jan-Dec 2026. | 科技Technology | Jan 10, 2027 72d left | 0 | ||
| Will CATL announce a solid-state production line before July 2027?CATL official announcement or SSE/HKEX filing. | 科技Technology | Jul 1, 2027 244d left | 0 | ||
| Will SMIC confirm 5nm-class volume production before 2028?SMIC earnings call, filing, or a confirmed teardown by TechInsights. | 科技Technology | Dec 31, 2027 427d left | 0 | ||
| Will a Chinese firm ship 10,000+ humanoid robots in one year by 2027?Company disclosure or MIIT figures covering a 12-month period. | 科技Technology | Dec 31, 2027 427d left | 0 | ||
| Will BYD sell over 1M vehicles outside China in 2026?BYD monthly sales disclosures, overseas line item, summed for 2026. | 科技Technology | Jan 15, 2027 77d left | 0 | ||
| Will the Shanghai Composite close above 3,800 on 31 December 2026?SSE official close of index 000001 on the final 2026 session. | 股市Markets | Dec 31, 2026 62d left | 0 | ||
| Will the Hang Seng Index touch 28,000 before July 2027?HKEX intraday high on the Hang Seng Index. | 股市Markets | Jul 1, 2027 244d left | 0 | ||
| Will a Hong Kong IPO raise more than US$5B before 2028?HKEX listing documents and final offer size. | 股市Markets | Dec 31, 2027 427d left | 0 | ||
| Will northbound Stock Connect set a single-day turnover record in 2026?HKEX Stock Connect daily turnover statistics. | 股市Markets | Dec 31, 2026 62d left | 0 | ||
| Will a domestic film pass ¥4B at the 2027 Spring Festival box office?Maoyan / Dengta final cumulative gross for the holiday window. | 文化Culture | Feb 20, 2027 113d left | 0 | ||
| Will China's 2026 total box office exceed ¥55B?China Film Administration annual total. | 文化Culture | Jan 1, 2027 63d left | 0 | ||
| Will a Chinese series enter Netflix's global top 10 before 2028?Netflix Top 10 weekly global list (non-English TV). | 文化Culture | Dec 31, 2027 427d left | 0 | ||
| Will China finish top of the 2026 Asian Games medal table?Official final medal standings, Aichi-Nagoya 2026. | 体育Sport | Oct 4, 2026 awaiting resolution | 0 | ||
| Will China qualify for the 2030 FIFA World Cup?AFC final qualification standings. | 体育Sport | Nov 30, 2029 1127d left | 0 | ||
| Will the 2027 CBA Finals go to a deciding game?Official CBA playoff results. | 体育Sport | May 15, 2027 197d left | 0 | ||
| Will 2026 full-year exports in USD terms grow more than 3%?GACC annual trade statistics, USD basis. | 贸易Trade | Jan 20, 2027 82d left | 0 | ||
| Will the 2026 goods trade surplus exceed US$1 trillion?GACC annual customs statistics. | 贸易Trade | Jan 20, 2027 82d left | 0 | ||
| Will new rare-earth export controls be announced before July 2027?MOFCOM export control announcements. | 贸易Trade | Jul 1, 2027 244d left | 0 | ||
| Will China add more than 300GW of solar capacity in 2026?National Energy Administration annual installation statistics. | 能源Energy | Jan 31, 2027 93d left | 0 | ||
| Will coal fall below 50% of the generation mix in any 2027 month?China Electricity Council monthly generation data. | 能源Energy | Dec 31, 2027 427d left | 0 | ||
| Will 10 or more new nuclear units be approved in 2026?State Council approval announcements, tallied for 2026. | 能源Energy | Dec 31, 2026 62d left | 0 |
经济Economy79d left
Will full-year 2026 retail sales growth exceed 4.5%?
49% chance1 traders
Vol 1 USDGb 6,000
NBS annual total retail sales of consumer goods, released Jan 2027.
经济Economy74d left
Will any month of 2026 print a negative year-on-year CPI?
38% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 5,000
NBS monthly CPI release. Resolves Yes on the first sub-zero YoY print.
经济Economy62d left
Will urban youth unemployment (16-24, ex-students) top 17% before 2027?
44% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 4,000
NBS monthly survey-based youth unemployment series.
经济Economy62d left
Will USD/CNY close below 7.20 on the last trading day of 2026?
52% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 7,000
CFETS onshore closing rate, 31 Dec 2026.
经济Economy51d left
Will new-home prices in all 70 surveyed cities stop falling in any 2026 month?
19% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 4,000
NBS 70-city new residential building sales price index.
政策PolicyAwaiting resolution
Will the PBOC cut the 1-year LPR at the October 2026 fixing?
27% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 8,000
PBOC Loan Prime Rate announcement, 20 Oct 2026.
政策Policy62d left
Will the PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio in Q4 2026?
58% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 6,000
PBOC official RRR announcement between 1 Oct and 31 Dec 2026.
政策Policy244d left
Will any tier-1 city materially loosen hukou rules before July 2027?
31% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 3,500
State Council or municipal government published policy, per Xinhua.
政策Policy136d left
Will the 2027 budget set a headline deficit ratio of 4% or more?
46% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 5,000
Budget report delivered at the March 2027 National People's Congress.
政策Policy427d left
Will a new property tax pilot be announced before 2028?
23% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 3,500
MOF or State Council announcement naming pilot cities.
天气Weather32d left
Will Beijing record measurable snowfall before 1 December 2026?
41% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 3,000
CMA Beijing Observatory (station 54511) daily precipitation record.
天气Weather335d left
Will Shanghai exceed 40°C on any day in 2027?
66% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 3,000
CMA Xujiahui station daily maximum temperature.
天气Weather31d left
Will 8 or more typhoons make landfall on the mainland in 2026?
35% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 3,000
CMA end-of-season tropical cyclone summary.
天气Weather336d left
Will a red drought alert be issued in the Yangtze basin before Oct 2027?
28% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 2,500
Ministry of Water Resources / CMA national alert bulletins.
科技Technology72d left
Will Xiaomi deliver more than 500,000 EVs in calendar 2026?
58% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 6,000
Xiaomi monthly delivery disclosures, summed for Jan-Dec 2026.
科技Technology244d left
Will CATL announce a solid-state production line before July 2027?
22% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 4,000
CATL official announcement or SSE/HKEX filing.
科技Technology427d left
Will SMIC confirm 5nm-class volume production before 2028?
33% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 5,000
SMIC earnings call, filing, or a confirmed teardown by TechInsights.
科技Technology427d left
Will a Chinese firm ship 10,000+ humanoid robots in one year by 2027?
29% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 3,500
Company disclosure or MIIT figures covering a 12-month period.
科技Technology77d left
Will BYD sell over 1M vehicles outside China in 2026?
61% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 6,000
BYD monthly sales disclosures, overseas line item, summed for 2026.
股市Markets62d left
Will the Shanghai Composite close above 3,800 on 31 December 2026?
35% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 8,000
SSE official close of index 000001 on the final 2026 session.
股市Markets244d left
Will the Hang Seng Index touch 28,000 before July 2027?
42% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 6,000
HKEX intraday high on the Hang Seng Index.
股市Markets427d left
Will a Hong Kong IPO raise more than US$5B before 2028?
47% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 4,500
HKEX listing documents and final offer size.
股市Markets62d left
Will northbound Stock Connect set a single-day turnover record in 2026?
36% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 3,500
HKEX Stock Connect daily turnover statistics.
文化Culture113d left
Will a domestic film pass ¥4B at the 2027 Spring Festival box office?
72% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 7,000
Maoyan / Dengta final cumulative gross for the holiday window.
文化Culture63d left
Will China's 2026 total box office exceed ¥55B?
54% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 5,000
China Film Administration annual total.
文化Culture427d left
Will a Chinese series enter Netflix's global top 10 before 2028?
39% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 3,000
Netflix Top 10 weekly global list (non-English TV).
体育SportAwaiting resolution
Will China finish top of the 2026 Asian Games medal table?
81% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 5,000
Official final medal standings, Aichi-Nagoya 2026.
体育Sport1127d left
Will China qualify for the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
24% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 3,000
AFC final qualification standings.
体育Sport197d left
Will the 2027 CBA Finals go to a deciding game?
44% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 2,500
Official CBA playoff results.
贸易Trade82d left
Will 2026 full-year exports in USD terms grow more than 3%?
51% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 6,000
GACC annual trade statistics, USD basis.
贸易Trade82d left
Will the 2026 goods trade surplus exceed US$1 trillion?
57% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 5,000
GACC annual customs statistics.
贸易Trade244d left
Will new rare-earth export controls be announced before July 2027?
49% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 4,000
MOFCOM export control announcements.
能源Energy93d left
Will China add more than 300GW of solar capacity in 2026?
63% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 5,000
National Energy Administration annual installation statistics.
能源Energy427d left
Will coal fall below 50% of the generation mix in any 2027 month?
34% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 4,000
China Electricity Council monthly generation data.
能源Energy62d left
Will 10 or more new nuclear units be approved in 2026?
45% chance0 traders
Vol 0 USDGb 3,500
State Council approval announcements, tallied for 2026.