Economy 经济35d left
Will China's Q3 2026 GDP growth come in above 5.0%?
64% chance1 traders
Volume 10 USDGb 9,000
Year-on-year real GDP in the National Bureau of Statistics quarterly release, 18 Oct 2026.
All markets 全部市场
36 markets across the economy, policy, weather, technology, culture, sport, trade and energy. Pick a side and the trade panel opens on that market.
Market catalogue 市场目录
36 of 36| Market | Category | Closes | Volume | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China's Q3 2026 GDP growth come in above 5.0%?Year-on-year real GDP in the National Bureau of Statistics quarterly release, 18 Oct 2026. | Economy 经济 | Oct 18, 2026 35d left | 10 | ||
| Will full-year 2026 retail sales growth exceed 4.5%?NBS annual total retail sales of consumer goods, released Jan 2027. | Economy 经济 | Jan 17, 2027 126d left | 0 | ||
| Will any month of 2026 print a negative year-on-year CPI?NBS monthly CPI release. Resolves Yes on the first sub-zero YoY print. | Economy 经济 | Jan 12, 2027 121d left | 0 | ||
| Will urban youth unemployment (16-24, ex-students) top 17% before 2027?NBS monthly survey-based youth unemployment series. | Economy 经济 | Dec 31, 2026 109d left | 0 | ||
| Will USD/CNY close below 7.20 on the last trading day of 2026?CFETS onshore closing rate, 31 Dec 2026. | Economy 经济 | Dec 31, 2026 109d left | 0 | ||
| Will new-home prices in all 70 surveyed cities stop falling in any 2026 month?NBS 70-city new residential building sales price index. | Economy 经济 | Dec 20, 2026 98d left | 0 | ||
| Will the PBOC cut the 1-year LPR at the October 2026 fixing?PBOC Loan Prime Rate announcement, 20 Oct 2026. | Policy 政策 | Oct 20, 2026 37d left | 0 | ||
| Will the PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio in Q4 2026?PBOC official RRR announcement between 1 Oct and 31 Dec 2026. | Policy 政策 | Dec 31, 2026 109d left | 0 | ||
| Will any tier-1 city materially loosen hukou rules before July 2027?State Council or municipal government published policy, per Xinhua. | Policy 政策 | Jul 1, 2027 291d left | 0 | ||
| Will the 2027 budget set a headline deficit ratio of 4% or more?Budget report delivered at the March 2027 National People's Congress. | Policy 政策 | Mar 15, 2027 183d left | 0 | ||
| Will a new property tax pilot be announced before 2028?MOF or State Council announcement naming pilot cities. | Policy 政策 | Dec 31, 2027 474d left | 0 | ||
| Will Beijing record measurable snowfall before 1 December 2026?CMA Beijing Observatory (station 54511) daily precipitation record. | Weather 天气 | Dec 1, 2026 79d left | 0 | ||
| Will Shanghai exceed 40°C on any day in 2027?CMA Xujiahui station daily maximum temperature. | Weather 天气 | Sep 30, 2027 382d left | 0 | ||
| Will 8 or more typhoons make landfall on the mainland in 2026?CMA end-of-season tropical cyclone summary. | Weather 天气 | Nov 30, 2026 78d left | 0 | ||
| Will a red drought alert be issued in the Yangtze basin before Oct 2027?Ministry of Water Resources / CMA national alert bulletins. | Weather 天气 | Oct 1, 2027 383d left | 0 | ||
| Will Xiaomi deliver more than 500,000 EVs in calendar 2026?Xiaomi monthly delivery disclosures, summed for Jan-Dec 2026. | Technology 科技 | Jan 10, 2027 119d left | 0 | ||
| Will CATL announce a solid-state production line before July 2027?CATL official announcement or SSE/HKEX filing. | Technology 科技 | Jul 1, 2027 291d left | 0 | ||
| Will SMIC confirm 5nm-class volume production before 2028?SMIC earnings call, filing, or a confirmed teardown by TechInsights. | Technology 科技 | Dec 31, 2027 474d left | 0 | ||
| Will a Chinese firm ship 10,000+ humanoid robots in one year by 2027?Company disclosure or MIIT figures covering a 12-month period. | Technology 科技 | Dec 31, 2027 474d left | 0 | ||
| Will BYD sell over 1M vehicles outside China in 2026?BYD monthly sales disclosures, overseas line item, summed for 2026. | Technology 科技 | Jan 15, 2027 124d left | 0 | ||
| Will the Shanghai Composite close above 3,800 on 31 December 2026?SSE official close of index 000001 on the final 2026 session. | Markets 股市 | Dec 31, 2026 109d left | 0 | ||
| Will the Hang Seng Index touch 28,000 before July 2027?HKEX intraday high on the Hang Seng Index. | Markets 股市 | Jul 1, 2027 291d left | 0 | ||
| Will a Hong Kong IPO raise more than US$5B before 2028?HKEX listing documents and final offer size. | Markets 股市 | Dec 31, 2027 474d left | 0 | ||
| Will northbound Stock Connect set a single-day turnover record in 2026?HKEX Stock Connect daily turnover statistics. | Markets 股市 | Dec 31, 2026 109d left | 0 | ||
| Will a domestic film pass ¥4B at the 2027 Spring Festival box office?Maoyan / Dengta final cumulative gross for the holiday window. | Culture 文化 | Feb 20, 2027 160d left | 0 | ||
| Will China's 2026 total box office exceed ¥55B?China Film Administration annual total. | Culture 文化 | Jan 1, 2027 110d left | 0 | ||
| Will a Chinese series enter Netflix's global top 10 before 2028?Netflix Top 10 weekly global list (non-English TV). | Culture 文化 | Dec 31, 2027 474d left | 0 | ||
| Will China finish top of the 2026 Asian Games medal table?Official final medal standings, Aichi-Nagoya 2026. | Sport 体育 | Oct 4, 2026 21d left | 0 | ||
| Will China qualify for the 2030 FIFA World Cup?AFC final qualification standings. | Sport 体育 | Nov 30, 2029 1174d left | 0 | ||
| Will the 2027 CBA Finals go to a deciding game?Official CBA playoff results. | Sport 体育 | May 15, 2027 244d left | 0 | ||
| Will 2026 full-year exports in USD terms grow more than 3%?GACC annual trade statistics, USD basis. | Trade 贸易 | Jan 20, 2027 129d left | 0 | ||
| Will the 2026 goods trade surplus exceed US$1 trillion?GACC annual customs statistics. | Trade 贸易 | Jan 20, 2027 129d left | 0 | ||
| Will new rare-earth export controls be announced before July 2027?MOFCOM export control announcements. | Trade 贸易 | Jul 1, 2027 291d left | 0 | ||
| Will China add more than 300GW of solar capacity in 2026?National Energy Administration annual installation statistics. | Energy 能源 | Jan 31, 2027 140d left | 0 | ||
| Will coal fall below 50% of the generation mix in any 2027 month?China Electricity Council monthly generation data. | Energy 能源 | Dec 31, 2027 474d left | 0 | ||
| Will 10 or more new nuclear units be approved in 2026?State Council approval announcements, tallied for 2026. | Energy 能源 | Dec 31, 2026 109d left | 0 |
Economy 经济126d left
Will full-year 2026 retail sales growth exceed 4.5%?
49% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 6,000
NBS annual total retail sales of consumer goods, released Jan 2027.
Economy 经济121d left
Will any month of 2026 print a negative year-on-year CPI?
38% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 5,000
NBS monthly CPI release. Resolves Yes on the first sub-zero YoY print.
Economy 经济109d left
Will urban youth unemployment (16-24, ex-students) top 17% before 2027?
44% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 4,000
NBS monthly survey-based youth unemployment series.
Economy 经济109d left
Will USD/CNY close below 7.20 on the last trading day of 2026?
52% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 7,000
CFETS onshore closing rate, 31 Dec 2026.
Economy 经济98d left
Will new-home prices in all 70 surveyed cities stop falling in any 2026 month?
19% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 4,000
NBS 70-city new residential building sales price index.
Policy 政策37d left
Will the PBOC cut the 1-year LPR at the October 2026 fixing?
27% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 8,000
PBOC Loan Prime Rate announcement, 20 Oct 2026.
Policy 政策109d left
Will the PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio in Q4 2026?
58% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 6,000
PBOC official RRR announcement between 1 Oct and 31 Dec 2026.
Policy 政策291d left
Will any tier-1 city materially loosen hukou rules before July 2027?
31% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 3,500
State Council or municipal government published policy, per Xinhua.
Policy 政策183d left
Will the 2027 budget set a headline deficit ratio of 4% or more?
46% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 5,000
Budget report delivered at the March 2027 National People's Congress.
Policy 政策474d left
Will a new property tax pilot be announced before 2028?
23% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 3,500
MOF or State Council announcement naming pilot cities.
Weather 天气79d left
Will Beijing record measurable snowfall before 1 December 2026?
41% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 3,000
CMA Beijing Observatory (station 54511) daily precipitation record.
Weather 天气382d left
Will Shanghai exceed 40°C on any day in 2027?
66% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 3,000
CMA Xujiahui station daily maximum temperature.
Weather 天气78d left
Will 8 or more typhoons make landfall on the mainland in 2026?
35% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 3,000
CMA end-of-season tropical cyclone summary.
Weather 天气383d left
Will a red drought alert be issued in the Yangtze basin before Oct 2027?
28% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 2,500
Ministry of Water Resources / CMA national alert bulletins.
Technology 科技119d left
Will Xiaomi deliver more than 500,000 EVs in calendar 2026?
58% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 6,000
Xiaomi monthly delivery disclosures, summed for Jan-Dec 2026.
Technology 科技291d left
Will CATL announce a solid-state production line before July 2027?
22% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 4,000
CATL official announcement or SSE/HKEX filing.
Technology 科技474d left
Will SMIC confirm 5nm-class volume production before 2028?
33% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 5,000
SMIC earnings call, filing, or a confirmed teardown by TechInsights.
Technology 科技474d left
Will a Chinese firm ship 10,000+ humanoid robots in one year by 2027?
29% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 3,500
Company disclosure or MIIT figures covering a 12-month period.
Technology 科技124d left
Will BYD sell over 1M vehicles outside China in 2026?
61% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 6,000
BYD monthly sales disclosures, overseas line item, summed for 2026.
Markets 股市109d left
Will the Shanghai Composite close above 3,800 on 31 December 2026?
35% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 8,000
SSE official close of index 000001 on the final 2026 session.
Markets 股市291d left
Will the Hang Seng Index touch 28,000 before July 2027?
42% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 6,000
HKEX intraday high on the Hang Seng Index.
Markets 股市474d left
Will a Hong Kong IPO raise more than US$5B before 2028?
47% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 4,500
HKEX listing documents and final offer size.
Markets 股市109d left
Will northbound Stock Connect set a single-day turnover record in 2026?
36% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 3,500
HKEX Stock Connect daily turnover statistics.
Culture 文化160d left
Will a domestic film pass ¥4B at the 2027 Spring Festival box office?
72% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 7,000
Maoyan / Dengta final cumulative gross for the holiday window.
Culture 文化110d left
Will China's 2026 total box office exceed ¥55B?
54% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 5,000
China Film Administration annual total.
Culture 文化474d left
Will a Chinese series enter Netflix's global top 10 before 2028?
39% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 3,000
Netflix Top 10 weekly global list (non-English TV).
Sport 体育21d left
Will China finish top of the 2026 Asian Games medal table?
81% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 5,000
Official final medal standings, Aichi-Nagoya 2026.
Sport 体育1174d left
Will China qualify for the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
24% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 3,000
AFC final qualification standings.
Sport 体育244d left
Will the 2027 CBA Finals go to a deciding game?
44% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 2,500
Official CBA playoff results.
Trade 贸易129d left
Will 2026 full-year exports in USD terms grow more than 3%?
51% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 6,000
GACC annual trade statistics, USD basis.
Trade 贸易129d left
Will the 2026 goods trade surplus exceed US$1 trillion?
57% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 5,000
GACC annual customs statistics.
Trade 贸易291d left
Will new rare-earth export controls be announced before July 2027?
49% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 4,000
MOFCOM export control announcements.
Energy 能源140d left
Will China add more than 300GW of solar capacity in 2026?
63% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 5,000
National Energy Administration annual installation statistics.
Energy 能源474d left
Will coal fall below 50% of the generation mix in any 2027 month?
34% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 4,000
China Electricity Council monthly generation data.
Energy 能源109d left
Will 10 or more new nuclear units be approved in 2026?
45% chance0 traders
Volume 0 USDGb 3,500
State Council approval announcements, tallied for 2026.